I want to expand on a comment I made in another diary by the always excellent News Corpse (LOSERS! Sean Hannity is Already Making Excuses for Why Trump Will Lose the Debates to Biden). That diary focused on Hannity’s lowering expectations for Trump in a presidential debate; I want to lay out a case for why I think there won’t be a debate at all.
Trump is a terrible debater. He has no command of the facts and no coherent policy; he deliberately breaks the rules of debate — one side at a time gets to speak — and he cannot construct a coherent argument. And that’s back in 2016. He only “won” the town hall against Hillary because he kept stalking her and glowering at her back. (I still think that if she had had the presence of mind to turn to him and say, “If you need to go to the bathroom that badly, we’ll be happy to wait for you,” she would now be finishing her second term.)
(Yes, the “presidential debates” are closer to a joint press conference than a true debate, but they still are supposed to be run according to the rules of debating.)
In 2020 he was worse. He skipped the second debate, even though he was down in the polls. Normally, it’s the leading candidate who tends to avoid debates because of the risk he might make a bad mistake, while the one who is behind takes the risk because it’s also his or her best shot to catch up. Trump balked. (He did do the third debate.)
In 2024, Trump skipped all the GOP primary debates. Yes, he was always ahead in the primaries, and won anyway. But by skipping the debates, he lost the chance to hone his debating skills (such as they are) and get practice for the general election debates. On the other hand, he avoided having to answer hard questions.
And that’s the thing. It’s long been abundantly clear that Trump will do anything to avoid being held to account. But that’s only one side of it. He will do anything to avoid being questioned. Questioned for real, that is. He is infamous for trying to do only softball interviews on venues like Fox and OAN. He hates questions that have any chance of revealing his ignorance (“What’s the nuclear triad?”) or incompetence (“Did you really think injecting bleach would be a good idea?), or that have the potential to cost him votes (“Will you sign a federal abortion ban?”).
Also, Joe Biden has developed a remarkable talent for getting under Trump’s skin. He’s doing it constantly — and to great political effect. Trump might be itching to get some of his own back, but he won’t want to do so where Biden can counter. (Like any bully, he will only attack from a safe distance or in safe circumstances.) I think he is now genuinely afraid of what “Sleepy Joe” can do to him face to face. At a distance, Trump may be able to accuse the president of being on drugs; in a debate, the moderator won’t allow it.
Which brings me to my main point. Trump is on trial in criminal court in New York, and he hates it. He hates it for many reasons, but one that stands out is that he is not in control of the situation. The judge is. And the judge is not letting him get away with anything.
Trump ran up against a similar loss of control in his prior debates, even if not to the same degree. He had to be constantly told to stop interrupting, to wait his turn, to stand still. He got away with some of it (see above, stalking Hillary). But this time, I submit, any moderator that would be acceptable to the Biden campaign will be one who will not put up with those kind of antics. The moderators will watch his prior debates, both in 2016 and 2020, and will study how to keep him under control, how to make him obey the rules of debate. Just as Judge Merchan is making Trump obey the rules of courtroom decorum. And Trump hates following the rules.
He’s not the president, either. Joe Biden is. (Pause for fireworks, shouts of Hallelujah!) That means that the deference he expects is his due will be shown to the other guy, not so much to him. (He insisted that his lawyers refer to him as “President Trump” in court. That wasn’t a tactic to sway the jury — it might even backfire — but they did it because he wants, he needs, that constant accolade and affirmation.)
Up to now, Trump has gotten away with being in denial of reality (my favorite bete noir). He still insists he won the 2020 election, and by now he probably believes it for real. But his experience in Judge Merchan’s courtroom is teaching him a different lesson — that he has to really really try as hard as he can to avoid any situation where he is not in control. He cannot control a debate.
No doubt he will play his usual game of saying of course he wants to debate, of course he will wipe the floor with Biden, of course it’s Biden who doesn’t want to. But ultimately he and his captive RNC will manufacture some excuse to get out of it, because he will not want to take the risk that he cannot control what happens there.